Why you’re probably placing yourself at incredible financial risk

And what to do about it.

About Me

For those who aren’t familiar with myself, my name is Bill Cai and I’m a CFM student at Waterloo.

As my degree would suggest, I’m passionate about the intersection between tech and finance.

So far I’ve done multiple internships in tech and I’m currently the co-founder and fund manager of Marble Investments (2.1M USD / 3.0M CAD).

The Software Dream

If you’re reading this, you’re likely a university student in tech.

Whether you have just started on or are well on your way, we all tend to have a similar end goal.

Work in tech, make a good salary right out of school, achieve finanical freedom early, then coast, retire, or build the startup of your dreams.

It’s sometimes easy to forget that this is an immense privilege.

Very few industries in history have allowed:

• High incomes early
• Decent career progression
• Work life balance
• Meritocracy

Having so much to lose is precisely why it’s so important to monitor this privilege carefully.

AI Threatens This Privilege

1. What is the chance AI replaces software engineers ?
2. What is the chance that AI decreases the value of software engineers?
3. What must change about your goals if you must accept a much lower salary than expected?

I think the trap here is deliberating if AI will replace software engineers or not.

There are valid arguments for both sides, and it’s hard to predict the future.

We went from LLM’s having no presence in software to Fable 5 (Now Astra) in three years after all.

In reality all outcomes lie on a probability distribution and the graph is different for each individual.

The real question is are you taking more risk than you want to be?

Less Value = lower salaries across the board, more competitive promotions, higher risk of layoffs

Considering what’s at risk

• Long term financial freedom
• Early retirement
• Helping others at scale

Regardless what you personally believe, the risk deserves some level of respect

Arguably we’re currently in the most dangerous position.

We haven’t made 99% of the money we expect to make in our lifetimes.

If AI develops in an unfavourable direction, it is that second block that is the most under threat.

How to Protect Yourself

To be clear, I don’t think the sky is falling down.

Technological change will always favour the young, intelligent, adaptable, and hard-working.

1. Effort Is Still Valuable Right Now

The main issue is that too much of your value is in potential income versus realized net worth.

In 2026 software engineers still make high salaries

This will continue for some time as wages remain sticky.

In the time SWE’s are still guaranteed to be valuable, take as much advantage as you can.

It’s a mistake to naively assume these conditions will last forever.

You don’t need to be scared forever.

The goal is to convert a larger portion of that expected future income block into net worth.

Once you’ve built a safety net you can recalibrate based on AI’s actual impacts.

In a world of uncertainty, capital is stability. It buys you time and the ability to participate in the development of AI through investing.

In my opinion, prioritizing building a financial base is more important in 2026 than anytime in history.

2. Diversify Your Career

There’s a quote by a Shopify executive that goes “AI makes everybody a 7 out of 10 engineer”

It’s increasingly valuable to be an 8+ out of 10 engineer and increasingly dangerous to have no “spike”.

You + AI should be more valuable than AI by itself no matter how good AI gets.

For some this means focusing on being a truly great engineer and/or specialising in a field.

• Specialists are going to be valuable for a lot longer than generalists.

For others this means diversifying your skills outside of engineering completely.

• Being a 7/10 engineer and a 7/10 influencer makes you a 9/10 B2C startup employee.

I’m seeing an influx of people build identities as:

• Software + Influencing
• Software + Entrepreneurship
• Software + Finance
• Software + Specialist in Firmware/DevOps/ML/Graphics

3. Targeted Investing

One issue right now is it’s you against AI. If AI wins you don’t benefit at all.

You must own a share of the companies trying to replace you.

For some this is working at an AI lab, but for most, this means targeted investing.

The point is to hedge against your career and is why I emphasize capital so much.

If AI is the real deal: Career 📉 Portfolio 📈

If AI is a bubble: Career 📈 Portfolio 📉

Marble is working on a list of the companies to own should one subscribe to this idea.

4. Financial Planning

Income maximization is something many software engineers already care a lot about.

Here are things I think are becoming more important:

• Tax and benefit maximization
• Optimizations based on your specific compensation structure
• Budgeting and saving
• Lay-off protection
• Long-term financial planning
• Scenario planning (AI is better/worse than expected)

All of these work to reduce the overall risk to your career.

Stay tuned for more articles about these topics to be posted on Marble.